So tonight NBC commits suicide, live in prime-time.

Yup, it's the premiere of The Jay Leno Show.

And sadly, this is not just my knee-jerk reaction to Leno's weak comedy. I think this show is a network-killer.

NBC, prepare to meet thy maker.

I just re-read James Poniewozik's cover story over at TIME.com "Jay Leno Is the Future of TV. Seriously" and I've been thinking about this all day.

(I'm also thinking that Poniewozik was mocking Leno at a few points, too.)

Without knowing the real numbers like the fall-off of advertisers, I'm making this call completely in the dark. But I do know that The Tonight Show or Late Night would win in the ratings with only 5.7 million viewers, while hour-long dramas like CSI can easily quadruple that with 24-26 million viewers.

Of course, as we learned in Time it's cheaper to make five nights of Leno's show than it is to make one one-hour drama.

So who wins?

I don't think anyone does. The public certainly doesn't need another scripted talk-show - Leno will cannibalize Conan's audience, causing huge inter-network strife. He'll also provide a poor lead-in for the local 11 o'clock news, leading to network-affiliate strife. But he comes at such a bargain basement price, some folks in the network will want to keep him. Any debate over his low-low ratings will have to mention just how inexpensively his show is produced.

It's terribly sad how low NBC has fallen. Poniewozik had a good point about how NBC was the network growing up. They mention The Cosby Show, ER, Friends and Seinfeld, leaving out Cheers, CHiPs, The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, The Facts of Life, Family Ties, The Golden Girls, Knight Rider, Laugh-In, Little House on the Prairie, Punky Brewster, Quantum Leap, Taxi, Remington Steele, Saved By the Bell, Silver Spoons, The West Wing.

What do they have now? Three Law & Orders, two hours of The Biggest Loser, a couple of Office rip-offs and Dateline.

Lame.

I honestly don't watch anything in their lineup. I used to watch My Name Is Earl, but they cancelled that. I know 30 Rock and The Office are good shows, maybe I'll give them both another chance this year. Oh, and then there's Heroes. Ugh, how they screwed that one up.

It's terribly fitting (and ironic) that the Seinfeld reunion will be on HBO.

Yep, NBC will soon take its place next to DuMont, UPN and the WB.

Next time - I debate the merits of the 9 pm Thursday showdown - Grey's Anatomy, CSI, Fringe and The Office go head-to-head-to-head-to-head.